By Gay Cororaton, MIAMI REALTORS® Chief Economist
Southeast Florida’s robust housing market over the past years since the Great Financial Recession in 2009 has created significant housing wealth (home equity) for homeowners. Home prices fell during the Great Recession, but home values have increased due to Southeast Florida’s demand fundamentals characterized by strong migration, a rising share of cash and wealthier buyers, and solid job growth.
In Miami-Dade County, a homeowner who purchased a single-family home 15 years ago (2009 Q1) at the median sales price of $182,000 with a 10% downpayment and a 30-year mortgage with an interest rate of 4.36%, has an expected home equity of $533,955 if the home were sold at the median sales price in 2024 Q1. In Broward, the median expected home equity on a home purchased 15 years ago during the Great Recession is $476,871; in Palm Beach County, $493,092; in Martin County, $463,888; and in St. Lucie County, $321,115. Nationally, the expected home equity gain is $287,111.
The expected home equity values in Southeast Florida’s counties over the past 3,5,10, and 15 years as of 2024 Q1 are higher than expected home equity nationally due to the stronger pace of price appreciation in Southeast Florida’s counties. Nationally, the median single-family sales price increased at an annual rate of 6% nationally over the past 15 years (Miami-Dade, 9%; Broward, 7%, Palm Beach, 7%; Martin 7%, St. Lucie, 9%)
Over the past 15 years, nine areas have an expected home equity of over $1 million:
- Palm Beach (town), Palm Beach County: $9.6 million
- Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County: $2.6 million
- Pinecrest, Miami-Dade County: $2.4 million
- Glenvar Heights, Miami-Dade County: $1.6 million
- Coral Gables, Miami-Dade County: $1.5 million
- Southwest Ranches, Broward County: $1.3 million
- Ojus, Miami-Dade County: $1.2 million
- Lighthouse Point, Broward County: $1.1 million
- Boca Raton, Palm Beach County: $1.0 million
Southeast Florida’s price outlook is solid amid elevated mortgage rates
Despite elevated mortgage rates, Southeast Florida’s price outlook is solid with home prices expected to rise 7% during the year given the area’s strong fundamentals and high presence of cash and wealthier buyers than nationally.
Miami-Dade County led the largest 10 counties in terms of employment growth in 2023 Q4, with employment up 2.8% nationally, surpassing the national rate of 1.5%.[1]
Driver license exchanges from out-of-state movers remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic level. In 2024 Q1, 16,906 people who established residency in the counties of Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and Martin exchanged their out-of-state driver, 917 people more than in 2019 Q1.[2] Out-of-state driver license exchanges from New York movers are up 18% from 2019 Q1 while California driver license exchanges are up 40%.
The share of wealthy cash buyers remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. In Miami-Dade County, all-cash sales accounted for 26% of single-family home sales, up from 20% in 2019. Year-to-date through April 2024, single-family homes sold at $1 million and accounted for 23% of home sales, up from 7% in the first quarter of 2019. The share of high-end buyers has led to a sustained price growth in Miami-Dade since December 2011, despite the decline in sales due to higher mortgage rates.
[1] Miami-Dade County Leads the 10 Largest Counties in Job and Wage Growth as of 2023 Q4 – MIAMI REALTORS®
[2] Driver License Exchanges in Southeast Florida Continue to Normalize in 2024 Q1 But are Still Higher than Pre-Pandemic Levels – MIAMI REALTORS®
